Several German federal states are testing software for predicting crimes, others are already using it. The risk of „danger“ or the recidivism of offenders is also to be calculated. However, a reduction in crime with the help of computer forecasts cannot yet be proven reliably. Instead, the applications are loaded with prejudice.
Predictive policing is an attempt to calculate the probability of future crimes based on near-repeat theory or the assumption of repeat victimisation. Similar to the „Broken Windows“ theory, it is assumed that earlier delinquent actions are likely to be followed by others. Data on crime scene and time, prey and procedure are processed and weighted according to a certain procedure (scoring). Data mining is used to identify patterns and find serial offenders. „Social Control by Software: A criticism of Predictive Policing“ weiterlesen
The Max Planck Institute in Freiburg does not see any proof of effectiveness for predictive policing in preventing home burglaries. Another study is expected next year from Hamburg.
So far, there has been no proof in Germany that so-called „predictive policing“ leads to crime rates being lowered in a particular area. Two investigations aim to shed light on this: one „study of new technologies for predicting home burglaries and their consequences for policing practice“ is currently underway at Hamburg University, however the project does not end until December 2018. In the meantime, evaluation of a predictive policing project in Baden-Württemberg by the Freiburg Max Planck Institute for Foreign and International Criminal Law has been completed. „Disappointing results for predictive policing“ weiterlesen
After each major summit protest, there are calls for a European “troublemakers” database to be established. Centralised data storage at EU level or decentralised networking of national systems would be conceivable options. For a number of reasons, it has not been possible to set up a database of this kind since the turn of the millennium. The governing coalition in Germany has now announced a new initiative to this end following the G20 Summit in Hamburg.
Cooperation on summit events between European security authorities has been running like clockwork for more than 20 years. Police and intelligence services have exchanged information on threats and “individuals who pose a terrorist threat”, have assisted each another with personnel and equipment and seconded liaison officers. Shortly before such summits, the Schengen Agreement is partially suspended and border controls reintroduced while travel bans are imposed on undesirable protesters. „Database on “European extremists”: How is the plan pursued since 2001 supposed to function?“ weiterlesen
Heiner Busch and Matthias Monroy. Translation by Viktoria Langer
The topic of counter-terrorism in Europe remains closely linked to the development and expansion of police (and secret service) databases. This was the case in the 1970s, after 11 September 2001 and has also been the case since 2014, when the EU Member States started working on their action plans against ‚foreign terrorist fighters‘.
The first effect of this debate has been a quantitative one: the amount of data in the relevant databases has increased explosively since 2015. This can be seen by looking in particular at available data on the Europol databases, like ‚Focal Points‘ (formerly: Analytical Work Files) of the Europol analysis system. Since 2015 they have become one of the central instruments of the European Counter Terrorism Centre (ECTC) which was established in January 2016. „Counter-terrorism and the inflation of EU databases“ weiterlesen
The PNR directive obliges air carriers to collect a whole host of data and pass it on to the border authorities in advance of all flights. This information includes registration data, seat and flight numbers, along with food preferences, credit card details or IP addresses. PNR passenger information units (PIUs) in the Member States then analyse the information to identify “suspects and anomalous travel patterns”.
On 27 April, the European Parliament and the Council adopted the Directive on the use of passenger name record (PNR) data. Information collected at the booking stage can now be used by police forces and intelligence services to “prevent, detect, investigate and prosecute” terrorist offences or serious crime. For flights from and to the EU, up to 60 individual pieces of data on passengers are collected and stored for five years. These include registration data, seat and flight numbers, along with food preferences, credit card details or IP addresses.
The collection of PNR data not only applies to airlines, but also to travel agencies, tour operators or other service providers who book flights. In the future, the plan is for European PNR data to also be exchanged with third countries or international organisations. „About the implementation of the EU Directive on the use of passenger name record data“ weiterlesen
For the interim period, an Israeli model is to be leased; over the next ten years, European arms companies are to develop a competitive “Euro-drone”
The German Bundeswehr has now selected a model of combat drone for future use. It plans to lease “three to five” of the latest “TP” version (Block 2) of the Heron family of drones, developed by Israel Aerospace Industries. The prime contractor for the leasing arrangement is the Airbus Group, which entered into a teaming agreement with the Israeli manufacturer on marketing in Europe.
The selection decision is initially a “bridging solution” for a ten-year period. The Federal Government is planning the development by 2025 of a “European solution” for drones which can be armed. After several attempts, the governments of Germany, France and Italy have agreed on a preliminary study for a long-range drone of this kind. The arms companies Airbus, Dassault Aviation and Alenia Aermacchi have been tasked with carrying out this “multilateral drone project”. Spain has since also joined the project. „German Bundeswehr to gain combat drones“ weiterlesen
The European Union is discussing access by law enforcement authorities to encrypted communications in a number of papers, working groups and new cooperation forums. The “crypto debate” begun around a year ago on ways to circumvent encryption or access protected communication has gained new momentum.
Most recently, the Luxembourg Council Presidency sent out a paper setting out the challenges posed by “Internet communication channels and multiple social media” to the Member States. The paper expresses the view that new “encryption based technologies” are increasingly hampering or rendering impossible effective investigations. According to this paper, these technologies are of particular significance not only in the area of “counter-terrorism policies”, but also of “anti-radicalisation measures”. „EU puts circumvention of encryption back on the agenda“ weiterlesen
Examination of several recently exposed cases suggests that the main targets of police public order operations are anti‐globalisation networks, the climate change movement and animal rights activists.
The internationalisation of protest has brought with it an increasing number of controversial undercover cross‐border police operations. In spite of questions about the legality of the methods used in these operations, the EU is working towards simplifying the cross‐border exchange of undercover officers, with the relevant steps initiated under the German EU presidency in 2007.
In October 2010 , “Mark Stone,” a political activist with far‐reaching international contacts, was revealed to be British police officer Mark Kennedy  prompting widespread debate on the cross‐border exchange of undercover police officers. Activists had noted Kennedy’s suspicious behaviour during a court case and then came across his real passport at his home. „Using false documents against “Euro-anarchists”: the exchange of Anglo-German undercover police highlights controversial police operations“ weiterlesen
Campaign against the next five-years plan for EU homeland affairs
Following Tampere 1999 and Hague 2004, the EU plans to decide the next five-year plan on „Justice and Home Affairs“ (JHA) this year.
After the implementation of data retention and new databases, the creation of „Frontex“ and the „European Security Research Programme“, the „harmonization“ of terrorism laws and more surveillance of the internet, next severe changes are foreseen to bet set in the new guideline.
Under swedish EU presidency in the second half of 2009, probably in November or December, the ministers of interior and justice will meet to agree the new „Stockholm Programme“. „Turn off the Stockholm Programme!“ weiterlesen